The State Has Admitted That Investors Don’t Trust It. What Next?

In an interview with the international industry outlet Yogonet, published on 21 October, Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Natalia Denikeieva admitted that Ukraine has not yet fully won the trust of international gambling organizers. She named unpredictability and the pace of reform as the main challenges. This is an important moment: the state is saying out loud what business has been repeating for years. The problem is not that Ukraine markets itself poorly, but that the rules of the game are still impossible to predict.

The price of this distrust is budget revenue. According to Denikeieva, the legal industry paid UAH 17.4 bn to the state budget last year. That figure could be much higher: by various estimates, the illegal segment still accounts for more than half of the market, and not one of the world’s leading gambling organizers has entered Ukraine in the six years since legalization.

The deadlines speak for themselves. In June, the Ministry of Digital Transformation promised to submit a package of bills on gambling, taxation and lotteries to the Cabinet of Ministers in mid-August. More than two months after that deadline, the package is still “in final approval”, and the new target is submission to the Verkhovna Rada by the end of 2026. For an investor building a five-year business plan, every such delay is a signal that Ukrainian rules cannot be relied on.

What exactly deters the major players? Double taxation, where the tax on income from organizing gambling and corporate profit tax fall on the same base. A tax on a player’s entire winnings rather than their real income — a direct gift to illegal casinos, which pay nothing at all. And the monopoly of state lottery operators, which contradicts the constitutional principle of competition. A systemic tax bill was meant to solve these problems. Had MPs passed it, the legal market would already be paying more to the budget today, and players would have no reason to go into the shadows.

The most common objection is that investors stay away because of the war. Yet even the Ministry of Digital Transformation acknowledges that the war is a factor, but not the only one. Capital enters high-risk countries too, as long as it can calculate the risks. Businesses can insure war risks. What they cannot insure is the risk that taxes will change next year or that a law will sit in a drawer for several more years. The state has already shown that it can build transparency tools: from 2027, online market monitoring will become mandatory for all licensed organizers. The tools exist — predictable rules do not.

Ukraine does not need new promises. It needs a package of three laws — on gambling, taxation and lotteries — registered in the Verkhovna Rada, along with a clear timetable for considering them. My forecast: if the bills do not reach the Rada by 31 December 2026, not one of the world’s leading gambling organizers will enter the Ukrainian market in 2027, and the share of the illegal segment will not shrink. Admitting the problem is the first step. But investors judge only the second one — an adopted law.

Anton Kuchukhidze, Chairman of the Ukrainian Gambling Council, especially for Ukrainian News