Politics as a bet — insider sportsbook scandal in the U.S. and global risks

The scandal involving an anonymous trader on the Polymarket platform, who earned $436K betting on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, exposed a systemic vulnerability in prediction markets. A new account, registered in December 2025, placed $32K just hours before the Delta Force raid on January 3, 2026 — the probability of “Maduro losing power by January 31” jumped from 6.5% to 11% ahead of Trump’s announcement. This is a classic insider trade: access to non-public information turned a secret into profit, sparking investigations and criticism from experts such as Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets. Read more