Politics as a bet — Insider gambling scandal in the U.S. and global risks

A scandal involving an anonymous trader on the Polymarket platform, who earned $436,000 from the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, has exposed a systemic vulnerability in prediction markets. A new account, registered in December 2025, placed a $32,000 bet just hours before a Delta Force raid on January 3, 2026 — the probability that “Maduro will lose power by January 31” jumped from 6.5% to 11% ahead of Trump’s announcement. This is a classic insider trade: access to undisclosed information turned a secret into profit, triggering investigations and criticism from experts such as Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi monetize geopolitics: bets on Greenland coming under U.S. control in 2026, NATO’s collapse by 2027, or even White House briefings. The platforms attracted hundreds of millions during the 2024 elections, demonstrating an advantage over traditional polling. Real money enables more accurate data aggregation. But crypto anonymity and weak regulation make them a magnet for insiders: officials, military personnel, or diplomats can manipulate events for profit — from delaying negotiations to editing reports.

Regulators are responding. Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would ban civil servants, political appointees, and the executive branch from betting using material nonpublic information. Thirty Democrats have backed the proposal, extending the STOCK Act to new markets. Kalshi already bans insiders, but Polymarket is disputing with users over $10.5 million in bets on U.S. actions in Venezuela. Without global standards, risks are growing: platforms are expanding, but impulsive betting amplifies vulnerabilities.

The global challenge is critical: prediction markets blur the line between forecasting and manipulation. Useful for informing policy — from elections to crises — they are turning into instruments of corruption, where classified information becomes “tradable.” Officials may provoke events for profit, from military operations to diplomatic crises, undermining national security and public trust. Without insider bans, digital audits, and international coordination, these markets risk becoming not aggregators of truth but catalysts of chaos, where politics plays by bookmakers’ rules. The world needs “adult” regulation to preserve their potential without falling into the trap of speculation.