Gambling market 2025: Achievements and forecasts

In the first 10 months of 2025, the legal gambling market paid UAH 14.6 billion in taxes. This figure is not only impressive but also demonstrates that the industry has the potential to be a significant revenue source for the state. Full statistics for the year will be released soon, but it can already be noted that this young market shows considerable prospects. At the same time, expectations should not be overstated, as this success has its “shadow side.” According to Hennadiy Novikov, head of PlayCity, 40–55% of the market still remains outside regulatory control. On one hand, this creates the potential for revenue growth to double—reaching UAH 30–40 billion. On the other hand, without the right measures, even the current UAH 14 billion result risks remaining fragile and temporary.

The new regulator has already achieved some results. PlayCity has blocked more than 2,500 illegal websites, regained control over lotteries for the first time in 12 years, and launched the development of the DSOM system. Operators are adapting, implementing responsible gaming standards, and paying licensing fees. At the same time, the young industry faces typical challenges: the regulatory framework remains fragmented, tax rules are ambiguous, and operators cannot plan effectively without a clear understanding of the “rules of the game.” When legal businesses comply fully while offshore operators operate “invisibly” through mirror sites and alternative payment methods, uneven competition arises. There is a risk that, if this imbalance persists, the share of the “shadow” market may increase. Heavy burdens on legal operators could result not only in lost tax revenue but also in reduced investor confidence.

Many European countries have already gone through the stage Ukraine is currently experiencing. The United Kingdom and Sweden opted for soft regulation with clear rules. Both countries successfully use a model where player winnings are not taxed, and bets are not subject to VAT. Instead, a unified GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) model is applied. This gives operators clear rules for 3–5 years, provides investors with predictability, and ensures stable revenue growth for the state and market. Changes within such an ecosystem cannot be chaotic, giving operators and investors long-term planning guarantees. It also eliminates a key risk—the migration of players to offshore markets due to tax confusion and overregulation. This approach creates a win-win situation: businesses can plan, the state maintains control, and players are protected.

The year 2026 is a time of choice for Ukraine. The initial success of UAH 14.6 billion could either become a springboard for significant growth or the peak before a crisis. For a country at war, the potential of UAH 30–40 billion annually is not abstract—it is a tangible contribution to financial stability, the development of digital technologies, and investment reputation. That is why a clear regulatory framework is essential for large-scale formalization of the online segment: unifying the tax model, establishing transparent monitoring rules, and fostering close partnerships between the state and legal businesses. Only a comprehensive approach can transform the industry from a source of one-time revenue into a stable element of the economy.